Analysis: Trump risks losing all if he focuses on 2020 ‘stolen election’ theatrics

TN Ashok (IANS)–

Former President Donald Trump will risk losing the 2024 elections, even if nominated by the Republican Party, if he focuses too much on his drama of the 2020 elections being ‘stolen’ from him as the voters’ odds stack up against him, tiring out on his political drama and theatrics.

Add to this his legal woes in four jurisdictions that will pop up any time next year to haunt him and may make the voters to change their minds. Republican from South Carolina, Senator Lindsey Graham, has warned Trump to not “look back” on the 2020 elections if he becomes the Republican presidential nominee, saying that he thinks Trump risks losing in 2024 if he focuses on the past.

Lindsey Graham on This Week

“I accept the election results of 2020. I’m worried about 2024,” Graham said on ABC’s ‘This Week’. “If President Trump puts his vision out on improving security and prosperity for Americans, he will win. If he looks back, I think he will lose. So, at the end of the day, the 2020 elections are over for me. We need to secure the ballot in the 2024 cycle,” Graham said.

He also pointed out that Hilary Clinton took the line of election being stolen much before Trump when she lost to him in 2016 and called him “illegitimate President of the US”.

Graham on Sunday also criticized as “political decision” a ruling from the Colorado Supreme Court that bars Trump from appearing on the state’s 2024 GOP primary ballot.

The court found the former President violated the 14th Amendment and “engaged in insurrection” amid the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol. “The hatred of Trump is so widespread. This Colorado Supreme Court made a political decision. In my view, there is no constitutional basis for the decision it rendered,” Graham said.

Multiple media reports point out that Trump faces many signs of potential political trouble; legal problems may be the biggest threats to Trump’s huge lead in Republican polls, as rivals urge voters to leave the drama of the Trump era behind.

Polls show that, so far, Republican voters have rallied around Trump after a series of indictments in 2023; but his aides are concerned that voters will eventually tire out in 2024 of all the drama and look at other candidates.

Trump has repeatedly attacked the prosecutions and lawsuits and urged voters to stick with him in the upcoming caucuses and primaries. “Crazy things can happen,” Trump said.

As Trump and his rivals enter the 2024 elections, here are things that can and will happen to Trump as he pursues the presidency again:

Adverse court rulings: Trump is surrounded by legal troubles that could pop up any time. The Colorado court verdict was one such that stunned the political world by ruling Trump is ineligible for public office.

It could inspire other states to follow suit. The Trump legal team is seeking to delay all of the criminal trials until after Election Day on November 5, and for good reason — a criminal conviction would transform the presidential race.

Falling poll numbers, rising rivals: Trump’s GOP rivals warn that his continued legal woes will eventually wear out voters who might start to consider alternatives. Trump’s rhetoric has also escalated, including describing political opponents as “vermin”, saying migrants have “poisoned” the blood of Americans; and threatening to prosecute political opponents.

Nikki Haley

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who is moving up in New Hampshire primary polls, said voters want to move beyond the turmoil of the Trump era. “Chaos does follow him,” Haley told Fox News last week.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is banking on a strong showing in Iowa, has said he would avoid the “chaos” of the Trump years.

Bad voter reaction: The ultimate bad sign for Trump would come from the voters. If Trump underperforms in the Iowa caucuses on January 15, and DeSantis does better than expected, it will change the stand of the opponents.

If Haley defeats Trump in the New Hampshire primary on January 23, that could totally change the race. Haley also has high hopes in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary on February 24.

If Haley does well in Iowa and wins in New Hampshire, the “momentum will swing heavily in her favor pre-South Carolina”, said Lara Brown, a political scientist and author of ‘Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants’.

If Trump is tried and convicted before the start of the Republican convention on July 15, his nomination could conceivably be challenged on the floor.

“Is one of our major parties going to nominate a convicted felon for President of the United States,” asked Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

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