Partha Chakraborty-
Every five years we are accorded an amazing display of coordinated human effort that covers the entire span of the country of India – the general election. In the most recent occurrence, the most populous nation in the world also held the biggest electoral exercise humankind ever has seen. There are apocryphal anecdotes of poll workers lugging equipment, power supply, meal ration and medical kit alongside the obligatory security contingent to a distant location for just a handful of voters, even one in some cases.
By law, no voter can live more than two kilometers away from the nearest polling station, and no polling station can have more than 1500 voters assigned. As a result, cumulative numbers can get mind-boggling. 642 million voters cast their ballots, over six weeks and seven phases, involving 1.05 million polling stations, 15 million personnel conducting the exercise, 1.8 million Electronic Voting Machines (EVM), 1.8 million Voter Verifiable Paper Trail Units (VVPAT), four hundred thousand vehicles, seventeen hundred air sorties to distant locations, and, hundred and thirty-five dedicated trains.
But not a single allegation of voter fraud. Just to be sure, immediately after polling closes each EVM and VVPAT is disconnected from the power supply, put in a specially designed box– separately – and sealed off with a signature. Vehicles, and people, carrying them back are GPS monitored.
Immediately after voting, each voter is required to dab the tip of their index finger with “voter ink” – a specially designed chemical that stains the skin and can only be removed as new skin grows in a few weeks. Invented in India, this ink is used around the globe – thirty countries by some counts – and the color used in India is Purple. Social media are agog with millions posting their stained fingers proudly for posterity, celebrities included.
Never in history did the color purple appear on so many fingers and then disappear without leaving a stain.
India is a land of promises as well as legacies – both good and bad. The best legacy India has is that it is a functioning if chaotic and cantankerous, democracy. Having won the privilege of the “most honorable form of government ever devised,” Indians do take it seriously. The results, often, surprise even the most jaded observer. The Indian electorate – ordinarily taken for granted as too gullible – is known to send shivers down the spine, cause earthquakes, even topple dynastic regimes after years of full-on autocratic misrule.
It is being argued that the latest general election is one such instance. I beg to differ.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) bagged 240 out of a 543-member Lok Sabha – the lower chamber of the Parliament, far short of 303 it had in 2019, even if its vote share remained about the same at 37%. Seats of Indian National Congress (INC) went up to 99 from 52. The alliance NDA, where BJP belongs, comfortably crossed the midpoint with 293 seats, the opposition bloc INDIA came in at 234. Among notable outcomes, BJP fared poorly in its heartland of Uttar Pradesh (UP), but made new inroads in the East and the South. Mr. Narendra Modi is to start his third consecutive five-year term as the Prime Minister – only the second time in India’s history – when Parliament convenes next week.
It is not at all clear why, and how, this is an earthquake when there is continuity in a coalition of like-minded political parties and personalities. That said, likely, there will be changes afoot.
It is argued that Prime Minister Modi performs like the CEO of a corporation – a very large one, no doubt – where functional heads of ‘verticals’ are either Ministers or very senior career bureaucrats. Modi is known to be a workaholic with a keen sense of where he wants to lead the country. His 2047 vision is to make India a USD 30 Trillion economy, the third biggest, as well as have a well-deserved seat at the Big Boys’ table in the league of nations. Love him or hate him, his singular imprint on every new initiative of substance is all too evident, sometimes literally. Some of the pitfalls of coalition politics that mar the executive branch of the government were markedly absent when BJP had a clear majority on its own – a privilege no longer accorded now that it needs other coalition members.
How does that affect facets of governance every day?
On foreign policy, I would argue there will be no change at all. Modi’s India has been exceedingly successful in setting a confident, and opportunistic, course on the global stage; coalition members will offer no course correction. On the economy, it is unlikely that coalition members – all acolytes of market forces – will navigate away from the course set in the last decade. Admittedly though, stakes are high.
The last ten years saw a pathbreaking deployment of a digital welfare system for the poor, a massively accelerated push in solving infrastructure bottlenecks and large-scale private programs in matters close to those at the bottom of the pyramid, including access to clean drinking water, clean toilets, and others. [Full Disclosure: I am a significant owner of several companies that are actively prospecting businesses in areas of water access and power distribution, among others]. Despite being the fastest growing large economy, India resides in what economists call a danger zone – a “mid-cycle-pause” before entering a “middle-income-trap.” To escape, India needs a strong(er) push forward.
It looks less likely today than three days ago. One fallout will be labor laws. “There are millions of small firms in India and one of the reasons why firm size remains small is because of labor rigidity arising from the fear of having to take prior permission for retrenchment or closure even if businesses are not viable.” The Modi government passed new labor laws at the Federal level, but many state governments have not moved in tandem to bring their own laws in sync, a process likely to slow down even more now that they are emboldened. This is worrisome because the country desperately needs employment-intensive and skills-intensive new jobs where today’s informal economy is just not equipped. Another fallout might be land-reform initiatives to make it easier to acquire land for industrial zones, infrastructure, and the like – Modi failed to pass one in the first term, and it looks all but dead now. The big manufacturing push – the “Make in India” campaign – netted some early wins, e.g., Apple is slated to make a quarter of its iPhones in India over the next two years, but deepening the push requires land and labor reforms, which are trickier wherever state-level buy-ins are a necessary component. That said, BJP did work with state-level entities to bring about tax reform as well as digital wallets for all – hopefully, this time will be no different given the consequence of doing nothing at all.
The bigger change will be in matters of inclusion. If ethnic chauvinism was a hallmark of BJP grassroots activism, this election highlighted its limits. India’s electorate wants jobs, economic growth, and opportunities, and are not too hung up on identity issues. 2047 goals seem far away when most new jobs are created in urban areas while most people still live in villages and small towns. Much of the migrant workforce are still reeling from the COVID-19 fallout, and it is difficult to buy into misgivings against a population whom you see suffering alongside you. It is possible, but not guaranteed, that coalition deliberations will take a less jaundiced view against minorities.
It is too soon to hypothesize about the scope of a change in many of these areas, if any.
One thing is clear, this election was another resounding victory for Indian democracy. The biggest election in history was carried out flawlessly, amidst record-breaking temperatures, reaching the remotest corners which it takes multiple days to reach in a combination of modes of transport, even mules, and on foot. The People of India spoke, and the message was unambiguous.
Between God and country comes that purple stain. Parties may choose to forget that, but only at their own peril. Amen to that.
