By Mayank Chhaya-
U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met for the first time since Moscow invaded Ukraine in February. The two had last met in January 2022 as the drums of war were reaching a crescendo.
That Blinken and Lavrov met in New Delhi today on the sidelines of G-20 foreign ministers’ meeting gave India some diplomatic visibility in the context of the US-Russia-Ukraine dynamic that the country may not necessarily have planned for.
Media reports from Delhi suggest that the meeting was initiated by Blinken and lasted just about ten minutes in the shadow of China increasingly openly supporting Russia over Ukraine.
Separately, Blinken also met India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. A statement from the State Department spokesperson, Ned Price said, “Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and External Affairs Minister Jaishankar met in New Delhi today to discuss strengthening the U.S.-India Strategic Partnership. They spoke about shared efforts to elevate and expand strategic technology and defense industrial cooperation, promote food, energy and global health security, clean energy transition, counternarcotics cooperation, and women’s economic empowerment. Secretary Blinken and Minister Jaishankar also discussed how to mitigate the global impacts of Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine, the United States and India’s cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, the successful launch of the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), and regional issues.”
In calling it an “illegal war” Blinken yet again struck a position that is entirely at variance with Jaishankar’s who has not necessarily called it a war and has always been circumspect in describing it.
The Blinken-Lavrov meeting is not expected to produce any breakthrough but to the extent that it signals a return to some dialogue, it is seen as a positive sign. “I wouldn’t say that coming out of this encounter there was any expectation that things will change in the near term,” a State Department official was quoted by the traveling U.S. media as saying.
Although short, the meeting focused on three broad points, the Ukraine war, Moscow’s suspension of its participation in the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty and continuing detention of American citizen Paul Whelan, described by Washington as “wrongful.”
Blinken called on Russia to “end this war of aggression” and “engage in meaningful diplomacy that can produce a just and durable peace.”
“President Zelensky has put forward a 10-point plan for a just and durable peace. The United States stand ready to support Ukraine through diplomacy to end the war on this basis,” Blinken said at a press conference in Delhi.
“President Putin, however, has demonstrated zero interest in engaging, saying there’s nothing to even talk about unless and until Ukraine accepts and I quote ‘the new territorial realities,’ while doubling down on his brutalization of Ukraine,” he said.
For New Delhi, which has struck a delicate balance between Moscow and Washington since the start of the Ukraine war because of its close ties with both, the stepped-up engagement of Beijing with Moscow is a matter of concern.
There have been extensive reports quoting U.S. intelligence that Beijing may be on the verge of supplying weapons to Moscow, including drones and ammunition. If that happens, Ukraine will have clearly positioned Russia-China against U.S.-NATO, something unprecedented.
The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a clear role to play considering that it is the only major power in the region with warm relations with President Vladimir Putin and President Joe Biden. So far, the Modi government has avoided any significant push since it is uncertain of the outcome of any escalated engagement with Putin refusing budge at all.
At the very least the Blinken-Lavrov meeting has the potential to offer Putin a clear firsthand idea of what Washington intends. Beyond that it is still in the realm of grave uncertainty.
