Ajay Jha-
New Delhi, June 4, 2024 –New Delhi, June 4, 2024 – Against all prognostications, pre-election surveys, and exit poll predictions, the Congress party-led combined opposition experienced a significant resurgence, though falling tantalizingly short as the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led ruling coalition narrowly secured enough seats to form the next government.
In a turn of events unprecedented in a decade, Indian voters delivered a near-fractured mandate, with Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerging as the single largest party, poised to secure approximately 240 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha in the General Elections of 2024.
While the autonomous Election Commission of India officially declared results for only 220 constituencies till the time of filing of this report, the prevailing trends indicate that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would be able to form the government with the expected tally of 291 seats, 19 seats more than the halfway mark.
Incidentally, BJP had won 303 and 282 seats in the 2019 and 2014 general elections. On the contrary, the principal opposition Congress party is poised to raise its tally to 99 seats while the Congress-led opposition that controversially named itself I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance), according to current indications, should bag 234 seats.
An analysis of the results suggests a rejection by Indian voters of the BJP’s pro-Hindu overtures. Prime Minister Modi himself registered a victory in the Varanasi seat of Uttar Pradesh by a reduced margin of just over 152,000 votes, compared to his margins of over 479,000 votes in 2019 and over 371,000 votes in 2014. The BJP had anticipated a victory margin of half a million for Modi, with projections of 370 seats for itself and over 400 seats for the NDA.
In a significant upset, the BJP lost the Faizabad seat, which includes Ayodhya, the epicenter of BJP’s political resurgence, highlighted by the recent inauguration of a grand temple dedicated to the Hindu deity Lord Rama.
Furthermore, the BJP performed poorly in Uttar Pradesh, a state critical in government formation, which not only hosts Ayodhya but harbors two other disputed religious sites at Kashi (Varanasi) and Mathura. The BJP trailed behind the Samajwadi Party, a constituent of I.N.D.I.A., winning just 32 seats compared to the Samajwadi Party’s 38 seats, despite having secured 71 and 62 seats in the 2014 and 2019 elections respectively.
Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, plays a pivotal role in forming the government by electing a maximum of 80 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha.
While Modi is poised to serve as Prime Minister for a third consecutive term, his leadership may necessitate adjustments due to increased dependence on allies. Meanwhile, the opposition I.N.D.I.A. has not ruled out attempting to form a government. Senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who secured victories in both the Wayanad seat of Kerala and the Rae Bareli seat of Uttar Pradesh, stated that decisions regarding seeking support from former NDA constituents will be made after a meeting of the opposition bloc on Wednesday.
Notable opposition parties that joined the BJP-led NDA before the elections include the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Janata Dal-United, which secured 16 seats in Andhra Pradesh and 12 seats in Bihar, as well as the Janata Dal-Secular, Hindustan Awami Morcha Secular and the Rashtriya Lok Dal in Uttar Pradesh, among others. If these parties align with the opposition, I.N.D.I.A. may fancy its chances at forming the government.
Despite facing the ignominy of securing only 44 and 52 seats in the previous two general elections, the Congress party’s projected victories in 99 seats are sufficient to officially designate the party leader in the Lok Sabha as the Leader of the Opposition, a position held for the first time in a decade. According to parliamentary rules, a party must secure at least 10 percent of the seats to be recognized for this post.
The prominent winners include PM Narendra Modi (Varanasi), his home minister Amit Shah (Gandhinagar), incumbent Defense Minister Rajnath Singh (Lucknow), Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari (Nagpur), Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia (Guna), federal ministers Narayan Rane (Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg), Piyush Goyal (Mumbai North) and Anurag Thakur (Hamirpur),former chief minister of Haryana and Madhya Pradesh Manohar Lal Khattar and Shivraj Singh Chouhan, and Lok Sabha Speaker – all BJP, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi (Wayanad and Rae Bareli), former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav (Kannauj), former Karnataka chief ministers H.D. Kumaraswamy (Mandya), former Karnataka chief ministers Basavaraj Bommai (Haveri), and Jagadish Shettar (Belgaum), former federal minister Shashi Tharoor, Mahua Moitra (Trinamool Congress, Krishnanagar), Abhishek Banerjee (Trinamool Congress, Diamond Harbour), film stars Shatrughan Sinha (Trinamool Congress, Asansol), Hema Malini (BJP, Mathura) Kangna Ranaut (BJP, Mandi) and former Indian cricketers Yusuf Pathan (Trinamool Congress, Baharampur) and Kirti Azad (Trinamnool Congress, Bardhaman-Durgapur).
Among those who were defeated include former Jammu and Kashmir chief ministers Omar Abdullah (National Conference, Baramulla), Mehbooba Mufti (Peoples Democratic Party, Anantnag-Rajouri), incumbent federal ministers Smriti Irani (Amethi), Rajeev Chandrasekhar (Thiruvananthapuram), and former federal minister Maneka Gandhi (BJP, Sultanpur).
