By Ritu Jha-
President Donald Trump may offer tariff concessions to India if Prime Minister Narendra Modi agrees to increase defense purchases from the United States, according to Sumit Ganguly, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and director of its Huntington Program on Strengthening U.S.-India Relations.
Modi met with Trump at the White House, where they held a joint press conference in the Oval Office. The two leaders emphasized their long-standing relationship, with Trump calling Modi a “friend” and a “great leader.” Modi, appearing composed, responded, “One thing that I deeply appreciate and learn from President Trump is that he keeps the national interest supreme… And like him, I also keep the national interest of India at the top of everything else.”
Trump, who has been vocal about trade imbalances, recently signed a reciprocal tax policy, stating that “a friend is not spared.” He previously called India an abuser in tariff practices and criticized the difficulty of doing business in the country.
Upon arriving in Washington on Feb. 12, Modi met newly appointed Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at Blair House, where he is staying. The following day, he met with Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Indian American businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.
“He wants India to buy more defense equipment. He wants more concessions from Modi on tariffs,” Ganguly said.
Ganguly noted that it remains unclear what agreements have been reached and said further details may emerge by the evening of Feb. 13. He speculated that Musk likely discussed Starlink’s entry into India’s satellite market with Modi.
“He’s using his position to enrich himself, and Trump is happy to go along with it,” Ganguly said, adding that Musk would face competition from India’s Reliance Industries.
Ganguly also highlighted Trump’s push to weaken the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, a move that could benefit Indian businessman Gautam Adani, who has been accused of securities fraud in the U.S.
“Adani would be very happy to see this uncertainty that’s hanging over his head removed,” he said.
On the likelihood of Trump easing his tariff stance if India commits to purchasing more U.S. defense equipment, Ganguly said, “Trump is completely transactional. It hardly surprises me that if he can get some benefit somewhere, he’ll make concessions.”
Regarding whether Trump will pressure India to reduce its energy imports from Russia, Ganguly said, “One would be shocked if we didn’t expect that from Trump. It will be tough for Modi and his team, as it’s going to be for many other countries in the world, not just India. Trump is essentially upending years of American foreign policy.”
He suggested India’s stance on buying Russian gas could shift, given Trump’s unpredictable approach toward Russia.
“We don’t quite know how Trump is going to approach Russia, though we have some indication based on his recent conversation with Putin,” he said.
Ganguly also suggested that Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar might adopt a more conciliatory stance toward Trump than he did with President Joe Biden.
“He knew he could get away with dismissing Biden, but it’s going to be much more difficult with Trump,” he said.
Ganguly predicted that the broader U.S.-India relationship would remain strong but emphasized Trump’s unpredictability.
“In the first term, the relationship turned out to be good in the end, but this term is different because Trump feels much more emboldened. He has planned for this moment with much greater care and consequently feels he can extract concessions from every country he deals with.”
Asked about Gabbard’s potential role in U.S.-India relations, Ganguly was uncertain.
“Tulsi Gabbard is an enigma to me. She started as a Democrat, then became a Trump Republican. She does not have a significant track record in intelligence, so we’ll have to wait and see. She may have a soft corner for India, but ultimately, she will do whatever Trump tells her.”
