By Mayank Chhaya-
The next four weeks or so in the runup to the U.S. presidential election offer Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an unencumbered period to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
Whether he does indeed go for Tehran’s nuclear jugular is uncertain but the fact that the prospect exists at all in the aftermath of Iran firing some 180 ballistic missiles at targets in Israel is not lost on Washington and other major capitals around the world.
Although the current assessment suggests that Iran does not yet possess nuclear weapons, it has an advanced enough program that would help it put together a nuclear weapon rather quickly.
As recently as on April 19, Israel carried out a strike near Isfahan. While the strike was in retaliation for a drone and missile attack by Tehran some days earlier, the fact that it took place on an Iranian military facility close to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center alarmed many around the world.
Netanyahu could use the Iranian missile strikes as a provocation to attack its nuclear sites, something which have been in his crosshairs for quite some time. What makes the next few days and weeks particularly fraught is that the U.S. is preoccupied with a contentious presidential election and President Joe Biden is in the twilight of his tenure.
Even though Biden still has the ability to heavily lean on Netanyahu not to precipitate a greater conflict by destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, it is questionable at best whether the prime minister would pay any heed to the U.S. president. So far, he has pretty much done what he always wanted to do in Gaza and now Lebanon, particularly in the aftermath of the October 7 massacre of Israelis by Hamas. There is nothing to suggest that should he determine that the best course of action for him is to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities he would not feel restrained by the Biden Administration.
Signs are that Biden has barely any leverage with Netanyahu since the two men never really got along. With the U.S. president being in his transit mode, Netanyahu ought not to feel any fetters around his action even against Iran.
Officially, Washington has said it stands by Tel Aviv in the aftermath of the Iranian missile strikes. However, behind-the-scenes there are reports of feverish diplomacy to prevent Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Netanyahu would be conscious of if not hamstrung by compulsions of U.S. domestic politics in so much as it affects Washington’s relations with Israel. Vice President and Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris has expressed steadfast commitment to support Israel even while underlining the rights of the Palestinian people, including self-determination. She is likely being viewed by Netanyahu with less than disguised suspicion compared to her Republican rival, former President Donald Trump who is not expected to nuance his aggressively pro-Israel thinking. He would have no problems with Netanyahu destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
With that as the backdrop, the flux in the runup to the presidential election offers Netanyahu perhaps his most obstacle-free chance to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. Tehran has made it easier by launching the missile strikes. At this stage it is anybody’s guess what Netanyahu might do, one of which is clearly Iran’s nuclear facilities in his crosshairs.
This uncertainty could well prompt Tehran to speed up its nuclear weaponization which, in turn, could Tel Aviv to rush its attack.
