Vice President Kamala Harris is the frontrunner in the presidential race, at least among Asian American voters. According to a poll conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago, Harris leads former US President Donald Trump by 38 percentage points among Asian American voters, expanding Biden’s 15-point lead by 23 percentage points since the Spring.
The Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIAVote) and AAPI Data released the findings from a survey of Asian American and Pacific Islander adults on September 24. This is the first such poll since President Biden dropped out of the race and Harris became the Democratic nominee. The poll, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago, shows a dramatic increase in support for the Democratic presidential ticket among Asian American voters since the release of the organization’s bi-annual Asian American Voter Survey (AAVS) in July.
Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIAVote) is the nation’s leading nonpartisan nonprofit dedicated to engaging, educating, and empowering Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) communities to strengthen their voices and create impact. For 15 years, APIAVote has been at the forefront of a rising movement to ensure AAPIs are represented and heard, leading to historic voter turnout and advancing equity for AAPI communities.
AAPI Data is a national research and policy organization producing accurate data to support community narratives that drive action toward enduring solutions for Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (AANHPI) communities.
Asian American voters say Harris’ identity as a woman is more important than her identity as Asian Indian or South Asian. 38 percent of Asian American voters say Harris’ identity as a woman is “extremely” or “very” important to them, compared to 27 percent who say the same about her identity as an Asian Indian or South Asian.
Asian Americans have been a rapidly growing group of eligible voters in the U.S. over the past two decades, growing by 15 percent in the last four years alone and turning out in record numbers in every federal election since 2016. In 2020, a surge in Asian American voters – especially those voting for the very first time – in battleground states was crucial to Biden’s victory.
“These results reinforce what we’ve been hearing and seeing from the Asian American community since July: they are re-energized and poised to once again play a decisive role in the election,” said Christine Chen, Co-Founder and Executive Director of APIAVote. “It’s also clear that the major parties and campaigns are no longer overlooking or taking AAPI voters for granted, but instead making concerted efforts to reach out and engage them on the issues that matter most to them.”
“Asian American and Pacific Islander voters are poised to play a pivotal role in this election,” said Karthick Ramakrishnan, Executive Director of AAPI Data. “Instead of speculating about how AAPI voters and volunteers are reacting to the Harris, Walz, and Vance candidacies, we have nationally representative, in-language survey data to inform news coverage and public understanding.”
The 2024 AAPI Voter Survey was conducted between September 3-9, 2024 by NORC using NORC’s Amplify AAPI Panel for the sample source. The survey was offered in English, Chinese dialects of Mandarin and Cantonese, Vietnamese, and Korean and was administered in two modes depending on the preference of the respondent provided during panel recruitment: Self-administered by the respondent online via the Web; or administered over the telephone by a live interviewer. The surveys with a live interviewer were only conducted in English.
Survey respondents are Asian American voters, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders 18 years of age or older, with oversamples of citizens and registered voters. The data have been weighted by ethnicity, education, Census Region, age by gender, ethnicity by gender, and ethnicity by nativity. The overall margin of error is +/- 4.7 percent.
Key findings among Asian American registered voters:
- Presidential Race: Among Asian American voters, Harris leads Trump by 38 percentage points, expanding Biden’s 15-point lead by 23 percentage points since the Spring.
- 66 percent of Asian American voters plan on voting for Harris, compared to 28 percent who say they back former President Trump. Those who say they will support another candidate or are undecided account for 6 percent.
- In the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May, 46 percent of Asian American voters backed Biden and 31 percent supported Trump, while 23 percent said they planned to vote for someone else or were undecided.
- The 2020 AAVS, which was conducted in July-September that year, 54 percent said they planned to vote for Biden, 30 percent for Trump, and 16 percent for someone else or were undecided.
- Candidate Favorability: Vice President Harris’ favorability among Asian American voters has increased 18 points since the Spring; Tim Walz is far more popular as a vice presidential candidate than JD Vance.
- 62 percent of Asian American voters say they have a favorable opinion of Harris, compared to 35 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of the Vice President.
- In the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May, 44 percent had a favorable view of Harris and 42 percent unfavorable.
- 28 percent of Asian American voters have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, compared to 70 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of the former President.
- In the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May, 34 percent had a favorable view of Trump and 62 percent unfavorable.
- 56 percent of Asian American voters have a favorable opinion of Tim Walz, compared to 18 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic nominee for vice president. 26 percent don’t know enough to have an opinion.
- 21 percent of Asian American voters have a favorable opinion of JD Vance, compared to 58 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican nominee for vice president. 22 percent don’t know enough to have an opinion.
- Certainty of Voting: Asian American voters are more likely to say that they are absolutely certain they will vote compared to April-May of this year.
- 77 percent of Asian American voters said they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in the 2024 election, up from 68 percent who said the same in the 2024 AAVS conducted in April-May.
- In the 2020 AAVS, conducted in July-September of 2020, 82 percent of Asian American voters said they were “absolutely certain” they would vote in the 2020 election.
- Voter Contact & Outreach: Asian American voters are far more likely to say they’ve been contacted by the Democratic Party than the GOP.
- 62 percent of Asian American voters say they’ve been contacted by the Democratic Party, compared to 46 percent who say the same for the Republican Party.
- In the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May, 45 percent of Asian American voters said they had been contacted by the Democratic Party, compared to 38 percent who said the same for the Republican Party.
27 percent of Asian American voters say they have still not been contacted by either party, down from 42 percent in the 2024 AAVS, conducted in April-May.
