By Mayank Chhaya-
Under President Donald Trump, Europe is suddenly confronting the reality of an America that is not just playing hard to get but even possibly becoming apathetic to it.
The most telling sign was senior U.S. and Russian officials holding talks on Monday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia over the future of Ukraine without the presence of anyone from either Ukraine or Europe.
The Riyadh meeting took place between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov, Trump’s national security adviser Michael Waltz, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, Steve Witkoff, Washington’s Middle East envoy and Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
The optics of officials from a country that invaded Ukraine nearly three years ago and from a country that is nearly 5,000 miles away from the conflict were quite extraordinary and a harbinger of a wholly unpleasant dynamic between Europe and America unleashed by Trump.
Simultaneously, shaken up by the sudden U.S.-Russia bonhomie, European leaders began their own conversations in the shadow of the rapidly growing apprehension that the Trump administration had all but sidelined them over Ukraine. Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain and France’s President Emmanuel Macron met on Monday even as other European leaders such as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz began plotting what Europe might do without the overwhelming presence of the United States.
It may not quite be the dawn of a post-American era over Europe yet, but it is not altogether inconceivable that for the next nearly four years of Trump in the White House would increasingly feel like that. The only solace at this point is that at least Trump is constricted by the two-term limit on the U.S. presidency even though he has joked about seeking a third term and beyond.
The Trump administration appears to be employing an unsettling mix of apathy towards liberal political forces and aggressive support for far-right parties in Europe which seem to be enjoying some measure of ascendancy as in the case of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) or Alternative for Germany. Vice President J D Vance made a speech at the Munich Security Conference the other day much to the chagrin of Scholz and other German leaders asking them not to shun far-right parties. He went to the extent of describing that approach as curbing free speech. AfD has been classified by German intelligence agencies as an extremist organization.
It is clear that Trump wants to fundamentally rewrite US-Russia relations, which in and of itself may not necessarily be a bad thing but in so much as it strengthens Putin, who invaded Ukraine at will, both politically and economically is seen by many in the U.S. as deeply problematic.
One of the points of discussion between the officials from the two countries in Riyadh was to improve economic ties. Putin has held out the possibilities of American oil companies and others doing business in and with Russia all over again, a prospect that Trump finds irresistible. The presence of Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund in the meeting was no accident in that context.
The absence of Ukraine at the Riyadh meeting was instructive but when the actual substantive negotiations begin soon Kyiv is expected to be very much part of them. This became clear in what Rubio told reporters. “There’s going to be engagement and consultation with Ukraine, with our partners in Europe and others. But ultimately, the Russian side will be indispensable to this effort,” he said. It, though, left the impression that the primacy in any peace moves rests with Putin, something the Russian president will be pleased to hear.
The apprehension that Trump will irretrievably alter the US-Russia dynamic to the detriment of America’s historic relations with Europe is somewhat overstated given that, unlike Putin, Trump is not going to be a long-term presence. Any change in the administration after 2028 could well reverse the situation just as Trump has done it. What remains to be seen is how much damage would be done in the US-Europe dynamic in the interim.
[Photo courtesy: Twitter]
