Justice Markandey Katju: The scenario where I.N.D.I.A. alliance wins

Justice Markandey Katju

By Justice Markandey Katju–

(Justice Markandey Katju is a former Judge, Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own)

Speculation is rife in India about the prospective results of the forthcoming parliamentary elections, to be held in seven phases from April 19  to June 1, with the results to be declared on June 4. The ruling BJP is being opposed by the 41-member opposition I.N.D.I.A. alliance.

Though most believe that the ruling BJP with its allies will win a majority in the 543-seat parliament, let us consider what will happen if this does not turn out true, and the I.N.D.I.A. alliance wins a majority, and forms the government.

1. The first question: who will be the Prime Minister? Though Rahul Gandhi will be a strong contender, other parties in the alliance may not agree.

Hence the alliance may agree to have Prime Ministers from different parties for limited terms, proportionate to their numbers in parliament. Thus during the five-year term of the Indian parliament (unless it is dissolved earlier) India may have 41 Prime Ministers, though with varying tenures in office. Though unprecedented, there is nothing in the Indian Constitution against this.

2. What will be distribution of portfolios? All members of the alliance will have an eye on the lucrative ‘wet’ ministries such as finance, industries, commerce, etc and none will seek the ‘dry’ ones like women’s welfare, social development, sports, etc. This distribution can also be done for fixed tenures, and proportionate to the numerical strength of the members of the alliance.

3. The Indian media will do a 180 degree turn, switching from supporting the BJP (as most are doing presently) to extolling the virtues of the alliance. This is because most of the Indian media houses are owned by businesspersons who would like to be on the right side of the new government, to protect their business interests. None would like the ED (Enforcement Directorate), the CBI (Central Bureau of Investigation), or Income Tax Department officials come chasing after them, as is happening these days.

4. There will be pressure on the new government leaders to institute ED, CD or income tax cases against BJP leaders, and such cases will consume the entire period of INDIA’s tenure and nothing else will be done, as it happened in the Janata Party rule from 1977-79 when cases against Indira Gandhi and other Co if the I.N.D.I.A. alliance wins.

5. There will be balkanisation of the country, with regional party leaders almost declaring themselves independent satraps, as it happened under the later Mughals after the death of Aurangzeb in 1707. This is because the I.N.D.I.A. alliance government, if formed, will be a coalition government, and coalition governments by their very nature are weak. When the Central government becomes weak, the state government leaders assert themselves, like kingmakers, and the central government has often to do their bidding.

6. Muslims may feel some relief after the nightmarish 10-year BJP rule of atrocities and discrimination against them.

7. The economy will tank and nosedive, with poverty, unemployment, child malnutrition, price rise etc increasing rapidly.

8 The Indian people will start cursing the new government a short time after its installation.

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