By Justice Markandey Katju–
(Justice Markandey Katju is a former Judge, Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman of Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own)
I had a long talk today on Whatsapp with my friend Saeed Naqvi, a very senior and eminent journalist of India, regarding the ongoing Indian parliamentary elections.
I expressed my opinion that the BJP’s seats will be reduced from the 303 it presently has to about 200-210, and the NDA alliance which presently has 353 seats will be reduced to about 240-250. I also said that the opposition INDIA alliance will also get about the same number of seats.
Consequently the central government which will be formed after the election results are declared , whether BJP led or Congress led, will be a weak government, since a coalition government which has no single party having a majority in the Lok Sabha, is necessarily a weak government, with coalition partners pulling in different directions.
There will be a scramble for lucrative portfolios, and infighting between the coalition partners even after the government is formed, as it happened during the Janta Party rule in 1977-79. The state Chief Ministers will become almost independent rulers, and king makers of the central government, like the Syed brothers after Aurangzeb’s death, and an era like that of the later Mughals will dawn in India, in which there will be chaotic conditions.
Even if Modi again becomes the Prime Minister, he will be a very weak leader, and only a shadow of the man with the 56” chest which he was for 10 years.
Saeed saheb disagreed with me. He said that the BJP are mafiosi, and Modi will somehow manage to manipulate things and get an absolute majority in the House by ‘saam, daam, dand, bhed’ ( i.e. by hook or crook ). He also said that he has discussed the matter with some friends who were of the same opinion.
I replied that the opposition leaders are no less mafiosi. In fact, the Congress was in power in India for several decades and its leaders know all the tricks of the trade. The anti-incumbency factor is also working against the BJP which is being blamed for the massive increase in unemployment, appalling level of child malnutrition, skyrocketing food prices, and other essential commodities.
The BJP had blamed the Congress for corruption, but the Electoral Bonds scam, exposed by the Supreme Court, has rebounded on it. The Prajwal Revanna sex scandal has also damaged its image.
So I stuck to my opinion that an era like that of the later Mughals is coming in India, in which there will be no strong central government, but regional satraps, and chaos will spread throughout the length and breadth of the land. This period of chaotic conditions may last 10-15 years, during which a mighty united historical people’s struggle will arise in India, cutting through caste and religious barriers, led by patriotic, selfless, modern minded leaders determined to create an alternative political and social order under which the standard of living of our people steadily rises, and our people get decent lives.
