By Justice Markandey Katju–
(Justice Markandey Katju is a former Judge, Supreme Court of India, and former Chairman, Press Council of India. The views expressed are his own)
The claim ‘India poised to surpass Japan as the world’s third largest economy by 2030‘ is laughable, and reminds one of the Nazi Propaganda Minister, Dr Goebbels, who kept saying that Germany was winning World War 2 when everyone could see it was losing, or General Westmoreland, the American commander in Vietnam, who said ‘There is light at the end of the tunnel’ when there was none.
The article is based on a report by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) Global Market Intelligence, which says that India’s 3.5 trillion economy in 2022 will become a 7.3 trillion economy in 2030. S&P Global Ratings is an American credit rating agency and a division of S&P Global that publishes financial research and analysis on stocks, bonds, and commodities. S&P is considered the largest of the Big Three credit-rating agencies, which also include Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings.
The S&P report cites the following factors in support of its conclusion
- Acceleration of FDI (foreign direct investment)
- Youthful demographic profile; and
- Rapidly growing urban household incomes
As regards the first, there was a huge foreign direct investment, mainly during British rule, but it left India impoverished, with only 2-3% of the world’s wealth and world foreign trade, when it was perhaps the richest country in the world under the Mughals, with about 25% of the world’s wealth and world foreign trade.
So FDI means nothing if it does not benefit the Indian masses, but benefits only some foreign multinational corporations. In fact, it may result in the loot of India (as it took place during British rule), destruction of markets for our own industries, and increase in unemployment in India.
As regards the second, the expression ‘youthful demographic profile’ is vague. The truth is that there is record and rising unemployment in India, which affects mainly the youth. Thirteen million Indian youths enter the job market each year, with too few jobs available.
It is estimated that 33% of skilled Indian youth are jobless. Even the jobs that exist are not well paid. India’s ‘economic miracle’ has a hidden time bomb for its youth.
When 100 peons or menial (class 4) jobs are advertised in India by the government, there are usually 500,000 applicants, some of them holders of PhD, MSc, MBA, or engineering degrees, all begging for a low-grade peon’s job.
As far as ‘rapidly growing urban household incomes’ is concerned, it is a myth. How can it be a reality when there is such massive, record unemployment in India? Incomes are generated when there are jobs, but with jobs decreasing, incomes are also going down. Moreover, the skyrocketing price rise even in essential commodities like food and medicines has resulted in drastic reduction in real incomes (because wages are relative to the price index).
It is often said that there is big GDP growth in India. Statistics about India are extremely unreliable, but even assuming there is increase in GDP growth, the question remains who is getting the fruits of that growth, the Indian masses, or a handful of big businessmen and multinational corporations? It is obvious that it is the latter, and it has increased the divide between the rich and the poor.
India has massive poverty and unemployment. Every second child in India is malnourished, wasted and/or stunted, as stated by Global Hunger Index, and India has slipped in a few years from position number 101 to 111 out of 125 countries surveyed, behind neighboring countries like Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.
Therefore, the truth is that far from the rosy picture S&P has painted about India, the situation is becoming increasingly explosive.
