By Ritu Jha-
Donald Trump’s return to the White House for a second term raises questions about the future of Americans, the Indian diaspora, and U.S.-India relations. To understand the potential implications, indica spoke with Sumit Ganguly, a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and director of its Huntington Program on Strengthening U.S.-India Relations.
Ganguly, an expert on U.S.-India relations, is also the Rabindranath Tagore Professor in Indian Cultures and Civilizations, Emeritus, at Indiana University. He has held academic positions at Columbia University, the University of Texas at Austin, and several other prestigious institutions. Ganguly admits he is uneasy about Trump’s second term but remains cautiously optimistic. “While I find many of Trump’s policies deeply troubling, both domestically and internationally, I believe that the nation and its ties with India are resilient enough to endure this period,” he said.
Q: What are your thoughts on Trump’s second term so far?
A: As someone who does not share Trump’s views, both domestically or abroad, I don’t find the announcements he made at the outset of his second term exciting in the least.
Q: How do you view the current state of America under Trump 2.0?
A: I think we are entering a very troubled time in America. But that’s my view of the matter; half of America’s population disagrees with me. I think a number of the things he’s suggesting, for example, the tariffs, could have disastrous consequences for American consumers. A vast majority of economists disagree with the utility of the tariffs, and they could lead to retaliatory tariffs even on the part of American allies. I find that deeply worrisome.
Q: What do you think of Trump’s environmental policies?
A: This whole notion of ‘drill, baby, drill’ and drilling in the Arctic wilderness preserve is a terrible idea because of the environmental consequences. The rolling back of Biden-era environmental protections and other such measures I find deeply disturbing.
Q: What about Trump’s stance on immigration and mass deportation?
A: The looming specter of mass deportation worries me a great deal. I am not in favor of illegal immigration. As someone who came to this country as a student and then subsequently followed every law in the book to become a legal immigrant and then a citizen, I’m firmly opposed to illegal immigration. But this whole notion of mass deportation worries me a great deal. This could create something resembling a police state in this country.
It has been said that if the local governments do not cooperate, they will take further action, which I find profoundly worrisome. It shows a kind of disrespect for the rule of law.
Q: Should naturalized citizens be worried under Trump 2.0?
A: No, there are limits to what he can do because there are constitutional and legal provisions that he will run up against. As a naturalized citizen who has followed the law scrupulously, I don’t think I have anything to fear.
Q: What are your thoughts on the H-1B visa issue?
A: The H-1B visa issue is complicated. There’s no question that there has been some abuse of the H-1B system by American employers and Indian firms. Indian firms have used the H-1B provision to send people who are not necessarily the most talented, qualified people imaginable. But largely, this is a form of body shopping. And American employers have been equally complicit in that.
When I got my H-1B, I had to provide extraordinary evidence of my abilities, competence, and publications and why I deserved this status. But that said, Trump is caught in an awkward position because, on the one hand, populists like Steve Bannon, who are quite close to him, are extremely hostile to the H-1B visa system because they think they can miraculously find American workers to replace the H-1B holders, which I think is ridiculous. On the other hand, people like Elon Musk are relying on cheap engineering and technical labor. He’s all in favor of H-1B.
Q: Could Trump’s H-1B policies affect U.S.-India relations?
A: I don’t think India has sufficient leverage to exert pressure. But I think Modi was quite clever in sending S. Jaishankar, the Minister of External Affairs of the Government of India, one of the smartest diplomats in the world. He and I have been friends for 30 years. But friendship aside, he is an extraordinarily able diplomat and he’s quite clever, politically quite astute.
Q: How do you see the relationship between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi evolving?
A: It’s too early to say how the two nations will interact. Much depends on who Trump appoints to senior positions dealing with India and South Asia. But both his national security advisor Michael Waltz, who was a former congressman and Marco Rubio are well disposed towards India. So, they are certainly to India’s advantage.
Q: Has India capitalized on the China +1 strategy?
A: India is hopelessly lagging on this front. Much of the investment that moved away from China has gone to Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia because India has not moved swiftly enough. The reason for this is the usual lethargy of Indian domestic politics.
Q: Could Trump’s manufacturing policies cause tensions with India?
A: There is going to be tension on this issue. Between Modi’s commitment to Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan and Trump’s Make in America, there will inevitably be some friction.
[https://www.hoover.org/profiles/sumit-ganguly]
