Mayank Chhaya-
The disclosure that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has sought China’s support for its war on Ukraine puts India in a terribly awkward diplomatic position.
U.S. officials have been quoted as saying that Putin has sought military aid and equipment. CBS News quoted officials as saying that the request from the Kremlin primarily concerns financial assistance but it has also inquired about drones. Both Moscow and Beijing have denied the reports.
New Delhi has not publicly indicated that part of its strategy of not condemning Putin’s war against Ukraine stems from its concerns over the warm relations between Moscow and Beijing as well as the Indian government’s need to moderate that friendship.
While India and Russia have had decades-long historic ties, the dramatic elevation of Beijing-Moscow relations has significant national security implications for India. Propelled the fact that New Delhi inordinately depends on Moscow for its weapons and other defense-related supplies it has had to walk a delicate line during three recent votes at the United Nations. India abstained from all three U.N. votes over Ukraine in clear recognition of the sensitive nature of its relations with Russia.
At the same time though official statements by India’s Permanent Representative to the U.N. T S Tirumurti have consistently called for an immediate end to all hostilities in Ukraine. Considering the world sees Russia as the aggressor in this particular case, India’s statements would by implication be seen as more aimed at Russia than Ukraine.
In and of themselves Indian statements would sound like they accompanied a vote against Russia but instead, they were part of abstentions. For instance, India has called upon “member states to adhere to the principles of the UN Charter and international law and respect the sovereignty and integrity of states.” While that does not name Russia, it is not lost on anybody that they referred to Russia.
One statement also said this: “We sincerely hope the ongoing direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine would lead to cessation of hostilities. There is no other alternative except the path of diplomacy and dialogue. The dire humanitarian situation needs immediate and urgent attention.”
India has had to bear in its mind that the way it calibrates its response to the Ukraine invasion does not offend Russia even while it demonstrates its consistent commitment to territorial integrity and a peaceful resolution of all international and bilateral issues. One part of that calibration is to ensure that China is kept in check and that is where Russia’s support has been crucial.
However, if Russia has had to seek China’s military and financial assistance for the Ukraine invasion, it significantly upends India’s calculus.
China has expectedly denied that Russia has sought any such assistance. “The U.S. has been maliciously spreading disinformation targeting China,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said yesterday in response to the report. “China’s position on the Ukraine issue is consistent and clear. We have been playing a constructive part in promoting peace talks.”
Meanwhile, even Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov also denied the reports saying, “Russia has an independent potential to continue the operation, and, as we said, it is developing according to plan and will be completed on time and in full.”
New Delhi has not commented on the reports perhaps as part of its strategy to talk directly with Moscow over any bilateral concerns. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been in regular contact with Putin but to no avail in terms of help to end the hostilities.
Another major concern for India is the prospective alliance between Beijing, Moscow, and Islamabad. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Putin in the midst of the Ukraine invasion. India has to watch out for any development on that front as well.
It is possible that at relatively lower diplomatic levels India might probe if the reports of Moscow seeking Beijing’s assistance have any substance to them and if they do it is conceivable that the country’s concerns would be conveyed.
