By Partha Chakraborty-
Today marks the end of ten weeks since the Oct 7, Hamas terrorist attack in which 1200 civilians were massacred in southern Israel, Hamas also took 240 hostages, including 12 Americans, four US hostages were released or rescued thus far, over hundred other hostages have been released and a few hostages are already dead. 137 hostages remain, including 17 women and a ten-month-old baby. These are also the days of Hanukkah, the rededication of the Temple by Jews, and lights adorn their homes in celebration of the miracles.
As the candles kindle hopes of returning to the miracle of normal lives, dark clouds appear no less ominous today than ten weeks ago. The State of Israel is David in an unfolding David versus Goliath asymmetric war of narratives. It appears, though, she is acting like she is Goliath. That may be a problem.
The fact remains that the Israeli government, especially Netanyahu-led administrations that dominated its political landscape for the last two decades, dropped the ball on what really matters as it relates to Gaza, tragically so. Tales of incompetence, willful misreading, and, worse, (mis)calculated pandering abound; some are confirmed, many not yet. It is reported that a 40-page document, “Jericho Wall,” was in Israeli possession for over a year. It contained a step-by-step war-plan that Hamas followed on Oct 7. “Jericho Wall” could have been an intelligence triumph but was not; weeks before Oct 7 intelligence reports of Hamas conducting practice rounds according to the blueprint were pooh-poohed as mere fantasy. Oct 7 massacres were fifteen times as deadly for Israelis as 9/11 was for the US, allegations of intelligence failure go far deeper than a “failure of imagination” as contended. A reckoning, when, and not if, is a must.
Fact remains that Hamas cares little for lives – not just Israeli lives as is obvious, but also Palestinian lives, maybe even their own lives. Hamas’ raison d’etre is ‘revenge;’ and, death-toll is a ‘line-card’ pasted on the wall in their terror showroom. Hamas’ myth of resistance has little to do with actual governance of Palestinians’ destiny, which they proved woefully inadequate and unwilling to do, but everything to do with the perpetuating a jihad against Jews. Hamas had seen a significant erosion of support within the strip – they won barely 44% of popular votes in the 2006 election when they grabbed power, 60% of Gazans had no trust in them just before Oct 07. Things look very different today. If these polls were taken even without Hamas henchmen looking over you, Hamas would surely benefit from “rallying around the flag,” War machines wreaking havoc amongst helpless civilians furthers Hamas’ cause far better than terrorists’ ‘bragging rights’ over the number of Jews murdered on Oct 7. Any other Palestinian entity, including PA in the West Bank, would think twice before dipping their toes back in.
Fact remains that the war has resulted in a consequence-free era for settler violence in the Occupied West Bank. “The moment the war in Gaza started, settlers knew they had an opportunity because no one was looking,” said Dror Sadot, a spokeswoman for B’Tselem, an Israeli human-rights group. B’Tselem claims over 1,000 Palestinians from at least 15 communities fled their homes since then, more than double the total displaced in the West Bank between the start of 2022 and Oct. 6. The Wall Street Journal reports that “(O)n the night of Oct. 11, armed men wearing balaclavas and military uniforms entered the village of Susiya, going from house to house and banging on doors, according to residents, Israeli peace activists and footage of the incident taken by locals and viewed by The Wall Street Journal. “Your time is running out” the men said, according to witnesses. One resident said he and his children had a rifle pointed at them.” This is just one instance, settlers’ attacks on nearby Palestinian villages have doubled since Oct 7, according to the UN. In nearly half of the attacks, Israeli forces accompanied or supported the settlers, B’Tselem claims. Really?
Fact remains that Gaza residents are being forced to lead a life that is desperate and despicable – you lie in packs in pitch dark amidst choking fume, dust, and stench of human flesh, only light there is flare from incoming ordnance, wait for a bunker-busting bomb to split your ear-drum, if not yourself, drink from trickle of muddy water and join the queue for a loaf of bread through the day; repeat the day next. You walk from zone to zone with little warning, navigate torn-apart roads through the rubble of high-rises reduced to nothing; you are joined by grandparents, mothers and infants whose vacuous stare belie trauma heaped on them every single minute – a visual no different than cattle being driven around by unseen, but unerringly punitive, forces of destruction from above, at times even in areas marked as “safe.” Hospitals have run out of medicine, 25 of 36 hospitals stopped functioning altogether, dead bodies are stacked one on top of the other in the hallway, dogs roam around seen eating the corpses.
Fact remains that any modern war is as much a war for hearts and minds as it is with bullets and bombs – selling the narrative of war is integral to winning it, especially for Israel. There may be hundreds of miles of tunnels buried deep within that house Hamas command centers, caches of weapons, including rockets, and presumably hostages, but that is not what the world sees. What the world sees is – or was – space over that web of terror incubators, spaces where ordinary residents of Gaza lived in chock-a-block apartments and narrow alleys that remind me of parts of Kolkata, where I am from. What the world sees gives little credence to IDF’s claim of precision bombing even with a wide margin for the fog of war that overcast the coastal region. Allegedly over 40,000 tons of bombs have been dropped on Gaza from air, sea, and land thus far – more than US bombs dropped over Iraq and Afghanistan combined in decades’ long campaigns turning Gaza truly an uninhabitable wasteland. You do not have to try hard or be biased to be moved by the images that remind you of Dresden or Tokyo. Dresden bombing lasted two days, as did Tokyo fire-bombing, though the Battle of Britain lasted longer.
Fact remains that Hamas is already winning, badly, the war for hearts and minds, especially on the Arab street. It is only because Israel’s neighbors are no shining examples of representative democracy that the powers that be are still reticent to speak out of turn, Abraham Accords would be a dead piece of bark if it were otherwise. Hamas’ big deliverable – putting the Palestinian issue at the core of all things in the Middle East – is a reality. Détente with Saudi Arabia, a prize that Israel and the US have been working for so long is on life support. Europe, and the UK, are teetering on the precipice with the potential of uprising within their borders from a sizable Muslim population. China is ready to pounce at any chance to emerge as a torch bearer for the Global South, Russia is as antisemitic as you get without having to spell it out loudly. India would not risk lifelong close relations with the Islamic world across the board, especially when visuals are so jarring. The US remains Israel’s only solid support as was apparent this week at the UN; Israel is losing the next generation even here. Israel, to belabor the obvious, played into Hamas’ hands in her fury.
Parallels with 9/11 are drawn frequently, so it behooves to revisit lessons the US learned the hard way. Even when we had complete dominance over the airspace, we found it more defensible, tactically, to bring in infantry and special forces. We went knocking down doors together with interpreters and informants from the community, and rounded up suspects, who, in turn, would provide actionable intelligence under interrogation. By the time Osama was taken down, the US was conducting drone strikes deep inside Pakistan. We still called in SEAL teams because a drone strike would cause collateral damage in crowded Abbottabad. Our lessons can be simplistically paraphrased as thus – for every innocent person you kill, you birth a hundred new insurgents whose vengeance in some not-so-distant future might take a form that you cannot comprehend today. We spawned ISIS for sure, thereafter we were careful not to try and match their trails of destruction.
In a parallel world, Israel starts by surrounding a zone inside Gaza, over time the entire strip, and methodically goes door to door, temporarily incarcerating every single adult male till his bona fides are established while treating the infirm, the elderly, women, and children with care and respect, provides everybody a living ration, water and basic civic necessities alongside human-rights groups and international relief agencies. Once done, Israel secures the perimeters and moves to the next, protected by helicopter gunships and drones, just in case. I am no military strategist, but I would bet that exasperated civilians would be more than willing to wink and nod in the direction to the gates of a tunnel. Once a tunnel is so identified, she could secure the exits and just wait.
At that point, Israel could create two different universes inside Gaza. The one over the ground will entail a reasonably well-functioning life for ordinary citizens under occupation. Vetted Gazans could study and work inside Israel once more, damage of infrastructure would be minimal compared to as is today, thereby reconstruction – supervised by Israel – would be faster and of better quality. All in, life for Gazans, sans the rats who scurried underground, would be far better than they have had for two decades – better economics, better healthcare, better representation of their grievances. Hamas terrorists have no choice but to surrender once their supplies, and support, run out. Meanwhile, life above ground could resemble normalcy while the waiting game continues. The fact that Israel could demonstrate, with receipts, that she creates a better life for Gazans far better than Hamas or PA ever cared to do, kills pungent narratives of grievance and humiliation. Hamas infrastructure would be destroyed, so will be their public support. Absent Hamas’ violence, moderate voices within Gaza could be enticed to take a leadership role, over time creating an autonomous core of a two-state solution. All of that is wishful thinking as we speak.
Nobody expects Israel to lose a physical war. That said, Israel’s concentrated fury on this tiny strip, without much to show for after ten weeks, is starting to look little more than revenge. She is entitled to revenge, given Oct 7, but that does not bring her relief. I hope she rededicates herself to approaches that do.
