By Mayank Chhaya-
The studied absence of China’s President Xi Jinping had next to no impact on the quality of G20’s success. If anything, it seemed to make India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s navigation of its complex undercurrents much easier.
As expected despite the presence of U.S. President Joe Biden and several other leaders, Modi towered above the summit basking in the glow of the centerstage, something he habitually enjoys. There were signs that Biden deliberately chose to step back in deference to Modi as the host of the show.
Apart from the very specific achievement in the announcement of the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, for Modi and his top diplomats two signature accomplishments stood out. One was, of course, the Delhi declaration with 100 percent consensus behind it notwithstanding Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine being the main sticking point. The other was Modi’s personal triumph in managing to induct the African Union (AU) into G20 as he had promised during the Bali G20 summit.
The AU’s exclusion from G20 was a galling one considering it represents 55 member-states with a total population of close to 1.3 billion. Whichever way one looks at it, Africa will remain a defining source for the growth of the global economy.
As a continent, Africa has 60% of the world’s renewable energy assets. In terms of the minerals necessary to create renewable and low-carbon technologies, 30 % of the minerals needed are in Africa. Fifty percent of the world’s Cobalt, a metal essential for lithium-ion batteries, is found in Congo. Add to the fact Africa’s other vast natural resources will be needed by the rest of the world as it battles climate change, and it is clear why the AU should have been a permanent member of G20 much earlier.
The fact that Modi managed to do it gives him the kind of cache and credibility in Africa that Xi with his country’s coercive and predatory debt financing is rapidly losing. It would not be surprising if post-G20 Delhi, India emerges as a clear winner over China in the next couple of decades vis-à-vis Africa. In this context, it bears pointing out that for decades India has been a preferred destination for many African students. There was a time when a significant percentage of the diplomats of African nations were trained in India.
As political spectacles go, G20 turned out to be a very well-executed event whose potential to bolster Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party’s electoral fortunes in the 2024 general elections could be considerable. Although there are very serious domestic problems that he is up against, from a disastrous handling of Manipur’s ethnic conflagration to unemployment and from deeply asunder social fabric to inflation, the kind of visibility he managed for himself personally could lead to electoral dividends.
With his eye firmly on the elections, he chose to use Bharat rather than India as the country’s name on the plaque at the summit meeting fueling speculations that he is on his way to officially changing it. So far neither him personally nor his government has said anything on the subject, the name plaque was as good a hint as there could be. There is a perception in certain quarters in Delhi that he may not go to the extent of dropping India altogether but change the order in article 1 of the Indian Constitution where it says “India, that is Bharat” to “Bharat, that is India.”
Modi is perceptive enough to recognize the global brand equity of India and it seems highly unlikely that he will erase it altogether. However, he used the G20 summit as Bharat coming out party.
