By Mayank Chhaya-
In what initially seemed like a triumph for President Donald Trump, the full and immediate US-mediated ceasefire between India and Pakistan faces prospects of a collapse with several explosions reported in Kashmir’s capital Srinagar today.
Barely hours after President Trump first announced the ceasefire, much to the consternation of many in India, as well as confirmed by both India and Pakistan, Jammu and Kashmir’s Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said on X, “What the hell just happened to the ceasefire? Explosions heard across Srinagar.” He followed up with another saying, “This is no ceasefire. The air defence units in the middle of Srinagar just opened up.”
The explosions underscored the tenuousness of the situation.
It is not clear if India will treat the explosions as an end of the ceasefire. There was no official statement at the time of recording this.
The ceasefire that came into effect at 5 p.m. India time today brings to a close, at least for the foreseeable future, the most expansive military conflict between India and Pakistan since 1971.
Quite remarkably, it was announced first by President Trump on his social media handle where he said, “After a long of night talks mediated by the U.S. I am pleased to announce that India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire.” For good measure he also congratulated the two for using common sense and great intelligence.
The announcement brought to an end four days of extensive missile and drone attacks by both sides which were for the first time inside their respective territories since the 1971 war when India under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi handed Pakistan a humiliating defeat and carved out Bangladesh as a new country.
It appears that behind-the-scenes outreach by Washington began soon after New Delhi carried out strikes on nine sites inside Pakistan calling them terrorist infrastructure. The retaliation was triggered by the massacre of 26 tourists in Pahalgam in Kashmir on April 22.
Whether the ceasefire holds for a long enough period for the two countries to revive some measure of dialogue is a hard question to answer given their decades-long disaffection and animus for each other.
Going by what U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio sad on his X post, it looks like the Washington wants to stay engaged with the two countries to help resolve their issues. He said, “Over the past 48 hours Vice President J D Vance and I have engaged with senior Indian and Pakistani officials, including Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Shehbaz Sharif, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir, and National Security Advisors Ajit Doval and Asim Malik. I am pleased to announce the Governments of India and Pakistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.”
His reference to India and Pakistan agreeing to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site is crucial. It is not inconceivable that the neutral site could be in the U.S. although there is nothing to suggest that.
The ceasefire mediated by Washington underlines that unlike China, which essentially watched the near war-like situation from the sidelines and even supported its client state Pakistan, the U.S. still wants to play a consequential role in conflict resolution around the world even under the America-first President Trump.
India appears to have managed to retain some leverage going by the fact that it has said it will consider any future terrorism event an act of war and has kept the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance. It very much appears to be a conditional ceasefire from the Indian side.
Although Pakistan attempted to deal India’s military installations a hard blow, including its air bases, it did not seem to succeed beyond some marginal damage. In contrast, there are indications that India has dealt some heavy blows to Pakistan’s air defense systems as well air bases.
There are those who view the ceasefire as a result of Pakistan recognizing that it may not be able to withstand the Indian onslaught if New Delhi escalated it to a conventional war. They also argue that in a sense Washington came to Islamabad’s rescue, but these are perceptions that cannot be accorded any serious foundation.
The return from the brink under U.S. mediation hands Trump some bragging rights for now even though Pakistan has never eschewed its policy of using terrorism as an instrument of its policy towards India. In the runup to the announcement the U.S. president sounded as if he was resigned to the escalating conflict with his deputy Vance saying that it was none of America’s business. And yet, as disclosed by Rubio, the vice president was very much involved in behind-the-scenes diplomacy to pull India and Pakistan from the brink.
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